From Tool to Ecosystem: The Next Wave of Online Fitness

In the post-pandemic era, at-home workouts have evolved from a stopgap into a full-blown lifestyle. A recent analysis of China’s booming online fitness market reveals a seismic shift: what began as simple tracking apps is now a vibrant “Fitness Metaverse,” encompassing hardware, personalized content, social networking and AI-driven experiences.

A Lifestyle Staple, Not Just a Fad

Over 300 million users across China now rely on platforms like Keep and Codoon to reshape their exercise routines—roughly one in four people nationwide. In Tier-1 cities, penetration has hit 65%, and 70% of all workouts happen at home, on the commute or in the office. Homegrown smart bikes, connected treadmills and AI-powered coaching have driven industry revenues past ¥50 billion in 2022.

Keep’s #Living Room Marathon saw over 1 million participants in a single day, transforming the app from a data logger into a fully immersive fitness universe. Smart Hardware, like dynamic bikes and smart bands, and AI-Customized Classes now account for more than half of market activity. Live-streamed workouts and celebrity trainers have cemented a content-to-hardware-to-subscriber business loop.

Gen Z and Urban Professionals Are Plugged In

A recent Beijing-area survey highlights the core user base:

Ages 25–35 represent 40% of active participants.

Urban middle class contribute over half of all subscription revenue.

Half of users spend $15–$45 annually, reflecting a nascent paid online workout habit, drawn by “ultimate convenience” (88%) and “privacy from gym crowds” (27%).

Weight-loss and body-sculpting classes dominate, with 59% of enrollments. Tier-1 users prize deep expertise, while emerging markets show a 53% sensitivity to gamified badges and social challenges.

Hybrid Fitness: The Best of Both Worlds

Despite the boom, only 3% believe online can fully replace gyms. Instead, 62% embrace a “hybrid” regime—stacking home-based foundational workouts with in-person sessions for specialized training. This convergence underscores how online and offline fitness are becoming seamlessly integrated, signaling a gradual shift toward digital platforms supplanting traditional gym routines.

Keep’s Monthly IP Challenges—collaborations with gaming brands and popular characters—attract over 2 million participants who log runs or workouts in-app to earn co-branded collectible badges. The badges’ cute designs even prompt girlfriends to enlist their boyfriends in order to win and “medal-brag” across social platforms. 36% of the survey participants also cite leaderboards and virtual badges as key retention drivers, fueling community engagement and peer-to-peer motivation.

What’s Next: AI, AR/VR & Deeper Integration

With penetration nearing saturation (Keep’s monthly active users grew only 0.4% year-over-year in early 2024), the battle for differentiation intensifies. Users are clamoring for:

Immersive AR/VR simulations (39% demand a true gym-floor feel).

Seamless hardware-software ecosystems—think smart scales auto-generating meal plans, or treadmills adjusting resistance based on real-time heart rate (39%).

Keep’s new “All in AI” motto reflects heavy investment—25% of R&D budget earmarked for virtual coaching. Already, 15% of the platform’s 5,000+ official classes are generated by AIGC, delivered in under 30 seconds at one-tenth the cost of an in-person trainer.

Looking beyond China’s rapid ascent, the online fitness transformation foretells a broader global shift in which AI-powered ecosystems seamlessly weave into daily life—from personalized health coaching and smart home devices to virtual communities that transcend geography. As fitness platforms evolve into holistic well-being hubs, we’re witnessing the emergence of an “intelligent lifestyle” paradigm: AI algorithms will anticipate our needs, AR/VR environments will recreate physical spaces at home, and wearable tech will bridge the gap between data and human experience. This trajectory not only heralds a new era of human-machine collaboration in health and wellness but also underscores how digital ecosystems—once siloed—are converging into integrated, personalized services that redefine how we live, work, and play worldwide.

Iven, Shengbo Zhao

May 20, 2025